What happened at Warsh's first FOMC

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% on June 17 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — no surprise there. The shock came from two structural changes delivered by new Chair Kevin Warsh in his debut press conference.

First, Warsh became the first Fed Chair to refuse to submit personal interest-rate projections to the Summary of Economic Projections, effectively boycotting the dot plot he has criticised for years. Second, and more consequentially, he stripped all forward-guidance language from the post-meeting statement, telling reporters: "I cannot give you any forward guidance on what we are going to do next."

Despite Warsh's personal abstention, the remaining dots delivered the hawkish scenario markets feared. Nine of 18 FOMC members now project at least one rate hike before year-end 2026, and six project two. The median forecast sees the policy rate ending 2026 at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in the March projections. The PCE inflation forecast was raised sharply to 3.6%, from 2.7% in March.

Bitcoin fell roughly 2.2% to around $64,150 in the hours after the decision, briefly dipping below the $64,000 mark. Ethereum dropped 3.6%, while XRP and Solana each slid approximately 3%.

How crypto ETF flows reacted

The post-FOMC ETF flow picture was uniformly negative. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of approximately $82 million on June 17, while spot Ethereum funds shed roughly $29 million — a combined $111 million exit in a single session.

Breaking down the Bitcoin side:

Fidelity's FBTC was the notable exception, drawing $14.02 million — the largest single-fund inflow of the day — suggesting that at least some institutional allocators used the dip to add exposure through Fidelity's self-custodied product. As we discussed in our IBIT vs FBTC comparison, the custodial-diversification thesis for FBTC can attract different capital pools even when BlackRock's flagship is under redemption pressure.

The outflows are part of a broader June pattern. Since mid-May, spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed roughly $4.4 billion across a 13-session streak that only briefly reversed on June 12–13 before yesterday's FOMC reignited selling.

What it means for investors

Warsh's elimination of forward guidance is not a one-day event — it is a regime change in how the Fed communicates with markets. Under Powell, traders could position around explicit rate-path signals for months in advance. Under Warsh, every FOMC meeting becomes a live event with genuine two-way risk. For non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, that means a permanently higher volatility premium around Fed dates.

Three practical implications for crypto ETF holders:

1. Pre-market gaps will be sharper around FOMC dates. Without forward guidance to anchor expectations, the gap between the ETF close and the next-morning open will widen on decision days. Investors using Pre-Tick's estimation engine to position ahead of the bell — as outlined in our pre-market strategy guide — should account for greater uncertainty in these windows.

2. Yield-bearing ETFs gain a structural edge. With rate cuts pushed to 2027 in the dot-plot median and a potential hike on the table, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Bitcoin ETFs rises further. Staked Solana ETFs offering 5–6% annual yield and BlackRock's staked-ETH product ETHB offering roughly 2–3% provide a partial offset that spot BTC funds cannot match.

3. Long-term holders are absorbing the selling. On-chain data tracked by CoinDesk shows that long-term Bitcoin holders absorbed approximately 125,000 BTC in June — one of the largest monthly accumulation events of the current cycle. The ETF outflows are real, but they are being met by patient capital that views the $63,000–$66,000 range as an accumulation zone. When the macro headwind eventually lifts, that supply absorption could translate into a sharper recovery for leveraged products like BITU that amplify directional moves at 2x.