Trust · Track record
Pre-Market Estimate Accuracy
Every trading day we compare the estimate shown at the 9:30 AM ET bell with each fund's official opening price.
Across 60 sessions (2026-07-17 to 2026-10-09), the median gap between our estimate and the actual open was 0.10%. Assuming the fund would open at its last close would have been off by 1.34%. 86% of estimates landed within ±0.5% of the open.
- Median estimate error
- 0.10%
- Median last-close error
- 1.34%
- Within ±0.5%
- 86%
By fund
| Fund | Sessions | Estimate error | Last-close error | Within ±0.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBIT | 60 | 0.07% | 1.05% | 98% |
| FBTC | 60 | 0.05% | 1.05% | 98% |
| ARKB | 60 | 0.07% | 1.05% | 98% |
| BITB | 60 | 0.06% | 1.07% | 97% |
| EZBC | 60 | 0.06% | 1.04% | 98% |
| BRRR | 59 | 0.12% | 1.09% | 92% |
| BTCO | 60 | 0.08% | 1.02% | 95% |
| HODL | 60 | 0.07% | 1.00% | 98% |
| BTCW | 57 | 0.18% | 1.02% | 90% |
| GBTC | 60 | 0.06% | 1.04% | 95% |
| BTC | 60 | 0.05% | 1.06% | 97% |
| ETHA | 60 | 0.09% | 1.27% | 97% |
| FETH | 60 | 0.07% | 1.28% | 98% |
| ETHW | 60 | 0.07% | 1.23% | 93% |
| ETHV | 60 | 0.17% | 1.25% | 88% |
| QETH | 57 | 0.26% | 1.26% | 81% |
| EZET | 60 | 0.14% | 1.25% | 88% |
| ETHE | 60 | 0.07% | 1.23% | 97% |
| BITO | 60 | 0.09% | 1.14% | 98% |
| BITX2× | 60 | 0.15% | 2.11% | 93% |
| BITU2× | 60 | 0.15% | 2.07% | 93% |
| SBIT-2× | 60 | 0.97% | 2.09% | 25% |
| ETHU2× | 60 | 0.18% | 2.52% | 95% |
| SOLT2× | 60 | 0.20% | 3.46% | 92% |
| MSTX2× | 60 | 2.15% | 4.56% | 17% |
| CONL2× | 60 | 1.68% | 3.75% | 13% |
| SOLZ | 28 | 0.10% | 2.01% | 89% |
Recent sessions
| Open | Funds | Median estimate error | Median last-close error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | 26 | 0.11% | 1.44% |
| 2026-10-08 | 25 | 0.06% | 1.41% |
| 2026-10-07 | 27 | 0.10% | 5.05% |
| 2026-10-06 | 25 | 0.07% | 0.34% |
| 2026-10-05 | 25 | 0.14% | 2.63% |
| 2026-10-02 | 27 | 0.17% | 2.28% |
| 2026-10-01 | 27 | 0.05% | 0.34% |
| 2026-09-30 | 27 | 0.04% | 1.86% |
| 2026-09-29 | 27 | 0.05% | 2.24% |
| 2026-09-28 | 27 | 0.07% | 0.55% |
| 2026-09-25 | 27 | 0.09% | 0.38% |
| 2026-09-24 | 27 | 0.07% | 0.88% |
| 2026-09-23 | 27 | 0.09% | 1.15% |
| 2026-09-22 | 27 | 0.06% | 0.95% |
| 2026-09-21 | 27 | 0.30% | 4.33% |
| 2026-09-18 | 27 | 0.13% | 2.21% |
| 2026-09-17 | 27 | 0.15% | 0.91% |
| 2026-09-16 | 27 | 0.08% | 0.61% |
| 2026-09-15 | 27 | 0.09% | 2.73% |
| 2026-09-14 | 27 | 0.07% | 1.04% |
How this is measured
For each session we take the estimate formula from our methodology (last 4:00 PM ET close, re-priced by the underlying crypto's move on Binance up to 9:30 AM ET, times the fund's leverage) and compare it with the fund's official opening price. Error is the absolute percentage gap; figures are medians over the last 60 sessions. Leveraged and futures-based funds are expected to show larger gaps.